Friday, August 3, 2007

Severance Insurance

One interesting fact that the Bureau of Labor Statistics data demonstrates that sort of offsets some of the adverse selection concern is that when you study the displacement history of the American workforce (age 25 through 54, both sexes, all ethnicities, in white collar/administrative/professional jobs across all industries, with three years or more of job tenure) over a long period of time (50 years), you'll see that the displacement rate as a percentage of the total workforce is amazingly close to a flat line around 1.67%. Even as the economy has seen wild swings in good times and bad, the departure from this average is not all that substantial. If you're interested, take a look at and drill into the size of the workforce at any given point in time and then drill into the number of people displaced. Do that for as many years as you want, and you'll see what I mean.

I've got to think that the insurance industry hasn't missed this, if they are really considering putting a product on the market (or they already have). Their actuaries are certainly looking for predictability and fifty years of this data certainly would show them that. However, don't think the adverse selection proiblem is solved. There's a lot more drilling to do.


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